Original research · July 2026
UK Holiday Let Break-Even Index 2026
What nightly rate a typical holiday let needs to cover its mortgage and bills in 27 UK areas, using the same cost model and official house prices. Famous demand is already in the purchase price. The useful question is the floor rate, not the postcard.
Same occupancy, same fees, same mortgage rate. Only the Land Registry average price changes. Median break-even across the 27 areas: £177 a night.
Dumfries and Galloway · average price £169,511
Cotswolds · average price £421,125
If the UK average house were a holiday let under this model.
13 areas break even below £175 a night at 55% occupancy.
What this shows
Yield-on-price is a price story, not a demand story.
Buyers treat Cornwall, the Cotswolds and the Lakes as the “good” areas because guests want to go there. Guests do. The Land Registry price already reflects that. Under one mortgage and one operating-cost model, those areas need a substantially higher nightly rate just to stand still.
Wales and Scotland cluster at the cheap end of the index because purchase prices are lower, not because the guests are easier. They also carry tighter letting rules: the 182-day Welsh business-rates test, and Scotland’s mandatory short-term let licence. The index prices the house, not the licence.
England’s average break-even in this set is £191; Wales £169; Scotland £170. The spread inside England is larger than the spread between nations.
How to use it
Use the area page as a first filter, then replace the average price with the actual asking price.
If local comparables cannot evidence the break-even rate in the shoulder season, the average house in that area is too expensive for this model.
A detached in a honeypot postcode will need more than the area average. A terrace in a market town will need less.
Do not treat a low break-even as a buy signal. Cheap areas can have cheap nightly rates to match.
The ranking
Break-even nightly rate at 55% occupancy.
Lower is easier under this model. Hover or scan the table for the 45% and 65% cases.
England in olive, Wales in teal, Scotland in green. Click a bar to open the area page.
Full table
27 areas, one model, official prices.
House prices are the UK HPI average for the named local-authority area in July 2026. Break-even is the nightly rate that sets net cashflow to zero.
| # | Area | Nation | Avg price | 12m change | Break-even @ 45% | Break-even @ 55% | Break-even @ 65% | Cash required |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dumfries and Galloway | Scotland | £169,511 | +4.6% | £179 | £153 | £135 | £76,929 |
| 2 | Argyll and the Isles | Scotland | £189,366 | +3.1% | £187 | £159 | £141 | £83,878 |
| 3 | Snowdonia and the Llŷn Peninsula | Wales | £204,974 | +5.5% | £193 | £164 | £145 | £82,866 |
| 4 | Pembrokeshire | Wales | £208,615 | -4.7% | £194 | £165 | £146 | £84,086 |
| 5 | Northumberland | England | £212,563 | +7.3% | £196 | £167 | £147 | £86,020 |
| 6 | Lincolnshire Coast | England | £214,508 | +4.3% | £196 | £167 | £147 | £86,643 |
| 7 | North Wales Coast (Conwy) | Wales | £217,829 | +1.7% | £198 | £168 | £148 | £87,173 |
| 8 | East Yorkshire Coast | England | £220,408 | +1.6% | £199 | £169 | £149 | £88,531 |
| 9 | Scottish Highlands | Scotland | £221,136 | +6.1% | £199 | £169 | £149 | £94,998 |
| 10 | Perthshire | Scotland | £229,180 | -1.4% | £202 | £172 | £151 | £97,813 |
| 11 | Lake District | England | £230,449 | +7.7% | £202 | £172 | £151 | £91,744 |
| 12 | Anglesey | Wales | £231,943 | -0.3% | £203 | £173 | £152 | £91,901 |
| 13 | Ceredigion | Wales | £235,160 | -1.2% | £204 | £174 | £153 | £92,979 |
| 14 | Isle of Wight | England | £245,900 | -0.9% | £208 | £177 | £155 | £96,688 |
| 15 | North Yorkshire Coast and Moors | England | £270,463 | +2.5% | £218 | £185 | £162 | £105,162 |
| 16 | Shropshire Hills | England | £275,232 | -1.3% | £219 | £186 | £163 | £106,831 |
| 17 | Cornwall | England | £275,642 | -0.7% | £220 | £186 | £163 | £106,975 |
| 18 | Suffolk Coast | England | £276,301 | -1.0% | £220 | £186 | £163 | £107,205 |
| 19 | Somerset and Exmoor | England | £282,062 | +3.1% | £222 | £188 | £165 | £109,222 |
| 20 | North Devon | England | £282,633 | -2.4% | £222 | £188 | £165 | £109,422 |
| 21 | North Norfolk | England | £292,563 | -3.1% | £226 | £192 | £168 | £112,897 |
| 22 | Edinburgh | Scotland | £303,965 | +4.0% | £230 | £195 | £171 | £125,607 |
| 23 | Dorset | England | £325,154 | -0.1% | £238 | £202 | £176 | £124,304 |
| 24 | Peak District | England | £355,387 | +7.1% | £250 | £211 | £184 | £134,885 |
| 25 | South Devon | England | £355,483 | -5.3% | £250 | £211 | £184 | £134,919 |
| 26 | New Forest | England | £384,977 | 0.0% | £261 | £220 | £192 | £145,242 |
| 27 | Cotswolds | England | £421,125 | +0.4% | £275 | £231 | £201 | £157,894 |
Methodology
One cost model, official prices, no invented occupancy.
Purchase price is the UK House Price Index average price for the local-authority area named on each page, for July 2026, published by HM Land Registry (England and Wales) and Registers of Scotland via the same open API. It is the average of all residential sales in that area, not the average holiday cottage.
The HPI area is often wider than the visitor honeypot. The Lake District page uses Westmorland and Furness (which includes Barrow); Cornwall includes Camborne as well as St Ives. That is stated on every area page. Treat the figure as a district floor, then price the actual street.
Occupancy is not estimated from listings. The index holds occupancy at 45%, 55% and 65% of 320 available nights so areas can be compared. If an area cannot realistically hit 55%, use the 45% column.
Contains HM Land Registry data © Crown copyright and database right 2026, licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
The cost model, in full
Mortgage: 75% LTV, interest-only at 5.75%.
Available nights: 320. Occupancy cases: 45 / 55 / 65%.
Management 18%, platform 3%.
Cleaning £115 per stay, average stay 4 nights.
Fixed annual: utilities £3,600, insurance £950, maintenance £2,500, compliance £500, other £1,400.
Cash required adds a 25% deposit, additional-dwelling purchase tax for that nation (2025/26 bands), £18,000 furnishing and £2,500 legal/survey.
Change any of those in the Deal Checker for a specific listing. The index exists so every area page uses the same floor.
Open the area
Each area has its own page: demand, rules, type prices and nearby markets.
Dumfries and Galloway
Avg £169,511 · break-even £153 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Dumfries and GallowayScotland · #2Argyll and the Isles
Avg £189,366 · break-even £159 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Argyll and the IslesWales · #3Snowdonia and the Llŷn Peninsula
Avg £204,974 · break-even £164 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Snowdonia and the Llŷn PeninsulaWales · #4Pembrokeshire
Avg £208,615 · break-even £165 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open PembrokeshireEngland · #5Northumberland
Avg £212,563 · break-even £167 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open NorthumberlandEngland · #6Lincolnshire Coast
Avg £214,508 · break-even £167 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Lincolnshire CoastWales · #7North Wales Coast (Conwy)
Avg £217,829 · break-even £168 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open North Wales Coast (Conwy)England · #8East Yorkshire Coast
Avg £220,408 · break-even £169 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open East Yorkshire CoastScotland · #9Scottish Highlands
Avg £221,136 · break-even £169 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Scottish HighlandsScotland · #10Perthshire
Avg £229,180 · break-even £172 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open PerthshireEngland · #11Lake District
Avg £230,449 · break-even £172 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Lake DistrictWales · #12Anglesey
Avg £231,943 · break-even £173 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open AngleseyWales · #13Ceredigion
Avg £235,160 · break-even £174 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open CeredigionEngland · #14Isle of Wight
Avg £245,900 · break-even £177 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Isle of WightEngland · #15North Yorkshire Coast and Moors
Avg £270,463 · break-even £185 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open North Yorkshire Coast and MoorsEngland · #16Shropshire Hills
Avg £275,232 · break-even £186 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Shropshire HillsEngland · #17Cornwall
Avg £275,642 · break-even £186 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open CornwallEngland · #18Suffolk Coast
Avg £276,301 · break-even £186 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Suffolk CoastEngland · #19Somerset and Exmoor
Avg £282,062 · break-even £188 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Somerset and ExmoorEngland · #20North Devon
Avg £282,633 · break-even £188 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open North DevonEngland · #21North Norfolk
Avg £292,563 · break-even £192 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open North NorfolkScotland · #22Edinburgh
Avg £303,965 · break-even £195 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open EdinburghEngland · #23Dorset
Avg £325,154 · break-even £202 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open DorsetEngland · #24Peak District
Avg £355,387 · break-even £211 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open Peak DistrictEngland · #25South Devon
Avg £355,483 · break-even £211 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open South DevonEngland · #26New Forest
Avg £384,977 · break-even £220 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open New ForestEngland · #27Cotswolds
Avg £421,125 · break-even £231 a night at 55% occupancy.
Open CotswoldsUse the numbers
The index is a filter. The deal is a house.
If an area’s break-even rate is already above what local calendars show in May or October, stop. If it is close, check the actual listing.
FAQs
Common questions
What is the UK Holiday Let Break-Even Index?
A ranking of 27 UK visitor areas by the nightly rate a typical holiday let needs to cover mortgage interest and operating costs at 55% occupancy. Prices are HM Land Registry UK HPI averages for July 2026. The cost model is the same for every area so the ranking is a price comparison, not a demand forecast.
Which UK area has the lowest holiday-let break-even rate?
Dumfries and Galloway is lowest in this edition, at £153 a night at 55% occupancy, because its average house price is the lowest in the set. That is not the same as saying it is the best place to buy: nightly rates there are also lower.
Why do Cornwall and the Cotswolds look expensive on this index?
Because the purchase price is high. Guest demand is real, and it is already paid for in the house price. Under the same mortgage and fee assumptions, those areas need a higher nightly rate just to break even. Test the actual asking price, not the county reputation.
Is this a yield ranking?
No. It does not estimate what guests actually pay. It answers: given this purchase price and this cost model, what nightly rate do you need so cashflow is zero. That is the number you then try to evidence from live calendars.
Can I download the data?
Yes. The CSV on this page includes rank, area, nation, HPI region, average price, 12-month change, break-even rates at 45/55/65% occupancy, cash required and purchase tax. House prices are Crown copyright, reused under the Open Government Licence.
How often is the index updated?
House prices refresh when a newer UK HPI month is complete for every area in the set, typically a few weeks after Land Registry publishes. The cost model is versioned in the plugin and only changes when the stated assumptions change.
Educational only. Not a valuation, yield forecast, tax advice or a recommendation to buy. Purchase-tax bands are the additional-dwelling rates as commonly published for 2025/26 and should be confirmed for the specific buyer and completion date. House prices will refresh when a newer complete UK HPI month is available for every area in the set.